Take a look at the figures below. They are available in the public domain, and clearly show how the voting percentage of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has steadily increased in West Bengal within a couple of years.<\/p>\n
It has been a matter of intense debate over the past few years as to what exactly is leading to the BJP\u2019s rise in the state: is it the Narendra Modi factor, the steady decline in the CPM\u2019s support base, or a growing anti-incumbency factor against the Mamata Banerjee government?<\/p>\n
An argument the CPM has taken resort to most in recent times has been a so-called alliance between Mamata Banerjee\u2019s Trinamool Congress and the BJP. The CPM has consistently argued that the Trinamool has contributed to the BJP\u2019s growth in Bengal. The CPM leadership \u2013 as part of its definitive stance, and a strategy to inspire their workers and supporters at various levels \u2013 insists that such an underhand alliance exists.<\/p>\n
Yet, the facts on the ground indicate that the voters of the Left parties are steadily gravitating towards the BJP. How? Let\u2019s look at some figures here. In the Cooch Behar Lok Sabha constituency, the BJP came second in the 2016 byelection \u2013 an improvement from its third position in 2014. There was a huge increase in votes. While this happened, the Trinamool Congress\u2019 votes too increased, but the Forward Bloc\u2019s votes came down sharply. This clearly indicates that how the Forward Bloc\u2019s loss was primarily the BJP\u2019s gain.<\/p>\n
There can now be seen a clear pattern in how anti-Trinamool Congress votes have gone to the BJP, and it has gone from the Left parties. Kathi Dakshin (Contai South), Uluberia and Cooch Behar byelection results were so poor for the Left that their even the security deposit was forfeited.<\/p>\n
In Uluberia, the second and third positions changed between 2014 and 2018 byelections, with Trinamool Congress and BJP gaining votes while the CPM lost votes.<\/p>\n
In case of Tamluk Lok Sabha seat, while the first, second and third positions remained unchanged in 2017 byelections from the earlier 2014 polls, votes in favour of the Trinamool Congress and BJP increased, while the number reduced for the CPM.<\/p>\n
The same trend can be noticed in the Noapara and Kanthi Dakshin Assembly seats \u2013 if the 2016 elections and subsequent byelections in 2017 and 2018 are compared. While the Trinamool Congress has emerged all-powerful (much of the terror, dominance and bloodshed in large parts of the state come from this), the Left is steadily losing the plot.<\/p>\n